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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Who will be the next Prime Minister of India?

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With just 3-4 months left for the General Elections, the question as to who shall be the next Prime Minister is pertinent question to be asked.

So who are the possible candidates. BJP has named one of its founder leaders, L.K. Advani as its Prime Ministerial candidate. This may be his last shot at Prime Ministership given his age. Congress on the other hand will most probably fight the elections under the leadership ManMohan Singh given his recent success in driving the Nuclear Deal home.

However, in my opinion there is a third candidate, Mayawati, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, who has a realistic chance at becoming the Prime Minister. And more importantly, she knows it pretty well and has been actively working on it. I know the readers of this blog are bound to raise a few eyebrows. Some of my friends too objected with my choice when I told them of the possibility.

Here is the reason why I feel so. In 2007, Mayawati won absolute majority in UP, something that has not happened in over decade with a single party managing a majority. Uttar Pradesh is the largest state with respect to number of seats in Lok Sabha. The states has produced as many as eight Indian Prime Ministers. Out of the 85 Lok Sabha seats, it is quite likely that BSP may win about 55-60 seats, which is a huge number.

Left has already indicated that it is willing to consider a Third Front under Mayawati. The Left Front which has its govts. in Kerala and West Bengal should win atleast 40 out of 62 seats. This is conservative estimate acknowledging the Singur controversy in WB. So the Left-BSP combine should end up with around 100 seats. That leaves 442 seats.

Getting 272 out these 442 seats by either NDA or UPA is extremely unlikely considering that there are still many strong regional parties like AIADMK, Trinamol Congress and TDP that haven't aligned with any group. It must not be forgotten that all three parties are the states where anti-incubancy is likely to be a major factor and all three are expected to make huge gains.

All groups have been trying to woo these parties for sometime. Since, DMK is in UPA, AIADMK cannot be a part of UPA. Similarly, TDP cannot be a part of UPA while Trinamol Congress cannot be a part of the Third Front. All three parties in the past have been a part of NDA at some of time. However, they all have suffered because of BJP's communal image in the past and the Third alternative is a good option for them.

The NDA in the last fews months has managed to bring aboard a few allies, for example - AGP in Assam. However, Assam has only 14 Lok Sabha seats which WB, AP and TN have 42, 42 and 39 seats respectively. So even one of the three decides to go the Mayawati, she will be in a very strong position to dictate terms.

The coming months are very crucial and would decide who would become the next Prime Minister.

1 comment:

  1. Wow. I am not a very political person. But I do know that I would not like to see either Mayawati or Narendra Modi as the PM.
    Yes, good prediction btw. Lets hope it does not hold true :)